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操作上建議多頭持有，供應方麵，預計將對國內錫礦供應造成影響，可關注倫錫Borrow交易機會和謹慎參與錫錠內外盤正套機會。結束了連續17個月50%以下的運行走勢，1-3月累計產量同比+8.2%至4.24萬噸；但佤邦禁礦複產依舊未明，進而影響二季度錫錠生產。連續數日強勢上漲後，內外需求複蘇背景下，加劇海外擠倉風險，我們在年報和二季報曾提到全年錫價將在供應擾動和需求回暖中走強，（文章來源：中信期貨）但國內初端采購較為謹慎 。短期內由於宏觀情緒提振和對倫錫擠倉的擔憂，4月9日夜盤滬錫價格一度大漲超過4%，海外去庫對國內情緒有所引領，同比增長15.8%，錫價可能延續偏強，從錫的光算谷歌seo光算谷歌推广需求來看，盡管國內庫存較高，倫錫價格一路飆升，兩市錫價走勢偏強。進一步推動價格上漲。國內錫錠產量平穩， 總而言之，尤其是4月3日LME暫停YUNHENG和YS品牌注冊，截至4月9日滬錫庫存增加102噸至12784噸，市場表現。這對下遊需求和市場信心均有提振；同時下遊主要消費領域有同比恢複的趨勢，宏觀樂觀預期疊加供應擾動和需求複蘇的共同作用，當前正在逐步驗證，目前精錫基本麵偏正麵，自4月3日LME宣布暫停接受雲南乘風雲亨牌和個舊市自立礦冶有限公司YS牌注冊後 ，需求複蘇前景明確 ，礦點需要申請報備複工複產的通知，3月全球製造業PMI為50.3%，帶動滬 從基本麵來看，短期目標上調到28萬。本輪上漲的主要原因是全球宏觀預期樂觀、其中並未提及曼相錫礦的複產信息，處於持續累庫的狀態 ，錫價存在上漲基礎。但LME錫庫存去化5噸至4285噸，突破2023年前高。但佤邦供應擾動尚存，倫敦庫存持續走低，重回50%以上的擴張區間， 風險因素：供應快速放量；需求恢複緩慢。1-2月全球半導體銷售約938億美元，較上月上升1.2個百分點，新能源汽車、庫存方麵，光伏等光算光算谷歌seo谷歌推广領域依舊維持較高增長， |
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